Saturday, January 10, 2009

Sunspot Cluster 1010

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I saw the Northern Lights for the first time in a long time on my way over to Becky's to watch Due South. With the perigree moon glowing in the sky, it wasn't the brigthest or showiest, but it arced clear across the sky and might have had a hint of colour in it. I, of course, did not have my camera and since I was only going 100 m - I also was not dressed for standing around, setting up a tripod and patiently setting up for long exposures.... even if I'd had my equipment and I was certainly too late to go back and both dress for the weather and grab my camera and set up the tripod... so... I admired them... chided myself for not checking the spaceweather lately and bounded on to my destination - where I sucessfully turned the heel of my second sock.. I'm really hoping for new socks by bedtime today.

So, I usually check the space weather and the regular weather frequenty.. at least daily for for some reason (end of term and lack of recent interesting changes) I haven't checked them much the last few days... and what do you know.. a new sunspot group (1010 - the first of the new year - sunspot number 14) see the NOAA, NASA picture that I scooped from spaceweather above and one of the most intense blizzard warnings we've had yet since the last time I'd looked. Thepredicted peak number of sunspots has been recently lowered and the timing of the peak pushed back, based on the slower than expected start to Solar Cycle 24 (at least according to NASA's Dr. Hathaway.) However, there is still hope for a light show sooner or later...

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keeping in mind that windmills are hazardous to birds, be wary of the unintended consequences of believing and contributing to the all-knowing environmental lobby groups.
Water vapour is the most important green house gas followed by methane. The third important greenhouse gas is CO2, and it does not correlate well with global warming or cooling either; in fact, CO2 in the atmosphere trails warming which is clear natural evidence for its well-studied inverse solubility in water: CO2 dissolves in cold water and bubbles out of warm water. The equilibrium in seawater is very high, making seawater a great 'sink'; CO2 is 34 times more soluble in water than air is soluble in water.
Correlation is not causation to be sure. The causation has been studied, however, and while the radiation from the sun varies only in the fourth decimal place, the magnetism is awesome.
“Using a box of air in a Copenhagen lab, physicists traced the growth of clusters of molecules of the kind that build cloud condensation nuclei. These are specks of sulphuric acid on which cloud droplets form. High-energy particles driven through the laboratory ceiling by exploded stars far away in the Galaxy - the cosmic rays - liberate electrons in the air, which help the molecular clusters to form much faster than climate scientists have modeled in the atmosphere. That may explain the link between cosmic rays, cloudiness and climate change.”
As I understand it, the hypothesis of the Danish National Space Center goes as follows:
Quiet sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect (more heat reflected) → colder climate
Active sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
That is how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with (modulated by) sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool.
The ultimate cause of the solar magnetic cycle may be cyclicity in the Sun-Jupiter centre of gravity. We await more on that. In addition, although the post 60s warming period is over, it has allowed the principal green house gas, water vapour, to kick in with humidity, clouds, rain and snow depending on where you live to provide the negative feedback that scientists use to explain the existence of complex life on Earth for 550 million years. The planet heats and cools naturally and our gasses are the thermostat.
Check the web site of the Danish National Space Center.
http://www.space.dtu.dk/English/Research/Research_divisions/Sun_Climate/Experiments_SC/SKY.aspx

9:51 AM  
Blogger Jennith said...

I believe you misunderstood my post. I check the spaceweather news because I like to photograph the northern lights or at least look at them. I check the weather because it helps me to dress when I leave home to walk to work. The above post had nothing to do with climate change what so ever. It has to do with me getting bored of weather and space weather reports that had changed little recently, then the minute I stopped checking obsessively - exciting stuff happens.

Your pro or anti-climate change message is so poorly written that I'm not even sure which side of the issue you are on.

Please don't use my blog to push your adgenda.

3:28 PM  

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